David Wasserman on the U.S. Census, Redistricting and Rethinking Demographic and Political Trends
September 8, 2021 | Webinar
Calling all political nerds and data junkies! What do changing demographics, the 2020 U.S. Census and the redrawing of congressional districts mean for the next election? We kicked off our fall programming season with David Wasserman, one of the country’s top political forecasters and Senior Election Analyst of The Cook Political Report to find out. In 2016, Wasserman was one of the few analysts to predict a Trump victory, writing two months before the election that Trump could win the White House while losing the popular vote. His granular knowledge of the country’s congressional districts and his “scrupulously non-partisan” analysis of this data make him one of the most sought-after analysts on election night. Wasserman discussed what redistricting efforts across the country may mean for future U.S. election outcomes, his “retail theory” of American politics and what the 2020 Census results have revealed about demographic trends.
Watch Replay Highlights
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Text, Wednesdays with Woodward (registered trademark) Webinar Series. David Wasserman on the U.S. Census, Redistricting and Rethinking Demographic and Political Trends. Metro Hartford Alliance. Travelers Institute. Travelers. American Property Casualty Insurance Association. Insuring America. APCI dot org.
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Every 10 years, as you all know as mandated by the Constitution, the United States conducts a census designed to count every resident in the country. The results of that census are used to determine everything from how to distribute hundreds of billions of dollars in federal funds and where to build supermarkets. So it's used for lots of different purposes.
It provides a window into our country where it's going, shifting demographic trends, and importantly, does determine the number of seats that each state will have in the U.S. House of Representatives, which then spurs states to redraw those voting districts. It's called gerrymandering, folks. Both parties are very good at it. So it depends on who controls that state legislature.
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Text, Political Power Shift. 2020 Census Bureau Apportionment. 6 States will gain and 7 states will lose seats in the House. A map shows Oregon, Montana, Colorado, North Carolina, and Florida gaining 1 seat. Texas gaining 2 seats. And California, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia losing 1 seat each. Source: U.S. Census.
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So in fact, based on last year's results, six states will gain congressional seats. Seven states are going to lose them, which you'll see outlined in my map here. So importantly, those Rust Belt states, where the Democrats are really strong, are losing congressional seats, while Texas is picking up two seats, and other GOP strongholds are gaining one seat.
So as you can imagine, this can have major implications for public policy issues and elections. And who better to explain this to us that our guest today.
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Text, Speakers. Joan Woodward, Executive Vice President, Public Policy; President, Travelers Institute; Travelers. David Wasserman, Senior Election Analyst, The Cook Political Report and NBC Contributor.
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It is my great pleasure to introduce David Wasserman. David is the U.S. House Editor and Senior Election Analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Nate Silver of the website, FiveThirtyEight, has written, quote, "Wasserman's knowledge on the nooks and crannies of political geography can make him seem like a local."
And the Los Angeles Times has called Wasserman whip smart, which he is, and scrupulously nonpartisan in his analysis. In the fall of 2016, David drew praise for his accurate pre-election analysis, including his piece quote, "How Trump can win the White House while losing the popular vote, " end quote, written two months before election day.
So in 2020, his forecast of Biden's win was correct in 49 of the 50 states, missing only North Carolina. David has served as the analyst for NBC News in every election since 2008 and has also appeared on Fox News, CNN, C-SPAN, NPR. You name it, he's there. We're thrilled, and I'm personally thrilled, to host David today. So with that, please join me in welcoming David.
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David Wasserman and Joan Woodward in a video conference.
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What's it going to take this year for the Democrats to hold on to the House? Conventional wisdom is they're going to lose the House for all the reasons you describe--the redistricting, the gerrymandering, the census, and Nancy's hold on that is only, as you say, effectively eight seats right now. So do you think there's a pathway for the Democrats to hold the House or actually pick up seats in the House?
I think it's too early to write Democrats' chances off. But a lot would need to go right for Democrats to hold on to their majority. First of all, I think Biden would need to get past Afghanistan, which is clearly taking a big toll on his approval ratings and turn the attention back on to a successful Infrastructure Bill or another area of his presidency where his numbers are stronger.
We could be in a much better place with regard to the Delta variant in a few months. And that could lift his approval rating. But I do think it would need to be above 50 to give Democrats any chance to begin with.
It was simply the geographic polarization between urban versus rural that drove our politics apart. And I think one of the most important trends for understanding both presidential and congressional politics is that Americans have chosen to live, whether subconsciously or not, in places where the vast majority of their friends and neighbors agree with their political values. That's on top of the tendency of Americans to tune into news sources that confirm their pre-existing points of view.
But the bottom line in redistricting, you're going to see blue states delegations get even bluer, red states delegations get even redder. And that's going to only increase polarization, and we could be in for litigation over how these maps are drawn that extends well into the next decade.
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Text, 2020 Census: rural districts will need to expand. A color-coded map of districts in the continental U.S. and Hawaii. Blue equals 20 or more. To yellow, 0 to 4.9, or orange, less than 0. Most of the map is orange with some patches of green in the west, Texas, and Florida and around major cities. Source: United States (registered trademark) Census Bureau.
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The results that we got from the census last month depict an America that is rapidly urbanizing and rapidly diversifying. And in fact, 52% of counties lost population between 2010 and 2020. And of course, the majority of those were heavily rural counties that are shrinking in population.
I think the biggest problem confronting us today is an epidemic of misinformation that flows over social media. And until social media giants find a better way to combat things that aren't true, then sensationalized and false information will travel at a much greater speed and velocity than facts, which are often less exciting.
Thank you again, David. It was really, really helpful for us to put this all in context. There's a lot going on. We'd love to have you back, of course, to give your analysis during the midterms and et cetera, onward.
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Text, Wednesdays with Woodward. A webinar series.
Summary
Census Revelations and Outcomes
The 2020 U.S. Census Bureau data revealed that the population in the United States shifted over the past decade out of the Rust Belt states and into the Southeast and West. This reapportionment, which only happens once every decade, will give states including Florida and Texas more congressional seats, and will take seats away from others, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. Population shifts will also impact the number of Electoral College votes a state has in a presidential election. Wasserman pointed out that the new reapportionment would have meant three less Electoral College votes for President Joe Biden in 2020, a warning sign for Democrats in the 2024 presidential contest.
The survey also showed major community movements and demographic shifts. “The results that we got from the census depict an America that is rapidly urbanizing and rapidly diversifying. 52% of counties lost population between 2010 and 2020, and the majority of those were heavily rural,” Wasserman told the audience.
In late 2021, census data will be used by state legislatures and commissions to redraw congressional districts within each state, a political process called redistricting, which can have major implications for the balance of legislative power. “Republicans could gain all five seats they need to win House control from redrawn maps alone [because they] have far more control over the redistricting process on a state-by-state basis than Democrats,” Wasserman explained.
But the population movements revealed in the census also throw a caution flag up for the GOP, said Wasserman. “The irony is that a lot of the Sun Belt states that Republicans control in this [redistricting] process [Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas] are states where demographic changes are threatening Republicans’ grip on suburban seats.”
The bottom line on redistricting, according to Wasserman: “You're going to see blue states’ delegations get even bluer and red states’ delegations get even redder, and that's going to only increase polarization.”
Beyond the Census: Political Trends Impacting 2022
President Biden’s Approval Numbers
Wasserman surmised that a lot has to go right for the Democrats to hold the House in the 2022 mid-term elections: President Biden would need a job approval rating of over 50% for the Democrats to retain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2022. According to polls in September 2021, Biden’s approval rating has slipped significantly below that margin since spring 2021. In addition, he noted that Biden needs to change the subject from pandemic challenges and the Afghanistan withdrawal to legislative victories; things need to get better on COVID-19, and the economic recovery cannot stall out or fall apart.
Growing Tribalism
“I think one of the most important trends for understanding both presidential and congressional politics is that Americans have chosen to live, whether subconsciously or not, in places where the vast majority of their friends and neighbors agree with their political values,” said Wasserman. “And that's on top of the tendency of Americans to tune into news sources that confirm their preexisting points of view.”
Wasserman noted that this tribalism, and resulting culture gap, can be seen in his retail theory of politics, which looks at retail chains as the leading indicators of where Democrats and Republicans are gaining strength in the electorate. He found that the best predictor of where Democrats were gaining support was whether there was a Whole Foods Market or a Lululemon store in the county, and the leading indicator of where Republicans were gaining support was whether there was a Cracker Barrel or a Tractor Supply Company in the county.
Wasserman’s data showed that this trend has become more pronounced and politically predictive. He pointed out that during the decades he mapped the culture gap, no county boundaries changed. “It was simply the geographic polarization between urban versus rural that drove our politics apart,” he said.
An ‘Epidemic of Misinformation’
Wasserman noted that the rise of partisan media has contributed to a lack of trust in the press. While most Americans used to get their news locally, they now get it through social media and national news outlets, which are concentrated in major cities and may be more out of touch with rural voters. However, Wasserman said, “I think the biggest problem confronting us today is an epidemic of misinformation that flows over social media. Until social media giants find a better way to combat things that aren’t true, then sensationalized and false information will travel at a much greater speed and velocity than facts, which are often less exciting.”
Trumpism 2.0
“If the Democrats aren’t careful, 2020 will become a delay, rather than a defeat, of Trump and Trumpism,” Wasserman told the audience. He pointed out that the 2020 presidential election could have easily gone the other way: President Biden’s Electoral College win turned on three counties in Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona, which he won by 42,915 votes, even while winning the U.S. popular vote by a large margin.
“Republicans are still loyal to President Trump,” said Wasserman, because he draws GOP voters to the voting booth. In 2020, Wasserman pointed out, Trump helped GOP down-ballot races by bringing in low- propensity conservative voters who might otherwise not have voted. The GOP also won down-ballot through ticket splitters who did not vote for Trump but did vote for GOP congressional candidates. “Trump still effectively runs the Republican Party,” said Wasserman, noting that President Trump’s endorsement wins primaries for candidates.
New Voting Laws Could Have Unintended Consequences
Wasserman said that he did not believe that the recent state voting laws and restrictions on voting put in place in states like Georgia and Texas would have an impact on elections in 2022 or 2024. In fact, Wasserman surmised that, instead, reaction to the laws would allow Democrats to fire up their base and promote voter turnout.
Unreliable Polling
Wasserman also commented on the waning credibility of traditional political polling. He shared that only 2% to 3% of people surveyed respond to pollsters today, yielding results that are not representative of the population. Instead of polls, Wasserman suggested we watch the margins of the 2021 races.
“Watch for the hard data out of some of the off-year elections and special elections for Congress and state legislatures in the year to come,” he said, telling the audience to keep an eye on the September 2021 gubernatorial recall election in California and the November 2021 governor’s race in Virginia. “Typically, when you have midterm waves against one party or the other, there are signs that show up beforehand in off-year elections.”
Presented by the Travelers Institute, the American Property Casualty Insurance Association and the MetroHartford Alliance.
Speaker
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David Wasserman
Senior Election Analyst, The Cook Political Report and NBC Contributor
Host
Joan Woodward
President, Travelers Institute; Executive Vice President, Public Policy, Travelers
News
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