Labor Market Outlook: A Conversation with LinkedIn^® Economist Dr. Kory Kantenga

From the ‟Great Reshuffle” to the ‟Big Stay,” hiring managers and business leaders have had to constantly adapt to recent labor market trends. LinkedIn^®’s Head of Economics for the Americas, Kory Kantenga, Ph.D., joined Jessica Kearney, Vice President for Public Policy at the Travelers Institute, for a dynamic conversation about the evolving labor market in the U.S., Canada and beyond. They explored how economic and demographic changes are shaping the current labor market and how these trends could factor into your hiring and retention strategies in 2025.

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What did we learn? Here are the top takeaways from Labor Market Outlook: A Conversation with LinkedIn^® Economist Dr. Kory Kantenga:

In recent years, the labor market has undergone notable shifts. “It’s undoubtedly been an interesting ride,” Kearney said. “We’ve managed through what some call the Great Resignation and others call the Great Reshuffle,” when employees resigned en masse during the pandemic. “More recently, headlines have declared the Big Stay,” she said. “We know that attracting, hiring and retaining talent continues to be top of mind for Travelers’ business partners, and so we’re using this session to dig beneath those headlines.”

Today’s data shows a slower but steady labor market. LinkedIn^® is able to keep a finger on the pulse of the labor market by monitoring trends from its over 1 billion users. This includes 69 million companies and 136,000 schools, as well as the 67 million job seekers who visit the platform each week, Dr. Kantenga said. “If you want to know what’s going on, first look at what people are talking about and what their sentiments are,” he said, noting that talk of layoffs has featured prominently in LinkedIn^® feed posts lately. This tracks with U.S. government data, which shows that ongoing unemployment claims are rising slightly, he said. However, he added that new claims, which indicate recent layoffs, have dipped slightly. “The labor market is running slower but definitely looks steady when we look at a lot of indicators,” he explained.

It’s important to look at the bigger picture when you see negative headlines about labor, noted Dr. Kantenga. The U.S. economy is adding jobs, and unemployment is low, he said. But negative news stories reflect the fact that the labor market has been slowing for the past few years since interest rates began to rise, he added. This means fewer hires, fewer quits and fewer openings to fill, leading to wage moderation. “Wages are still going up and they’re actually outpacing inflation now, but there’s wage moderation as well,” he explained. “We have had a really good run of the labor market in the U.S., from the Great Reshuffle up until now, measuring it in historical terms. So it’s always important to keep the context in mind. Things are not necessarily trending in the right direction, but they’re coming from a very high point.”

The pace of hiring has slowed in some sectors. Despite economic growth and a steady, albeit slower, labor market, job seekers feel less confident in their prospects, Dr. Kantenga said. That’s partly because the pace of hiring has slowed, especially in real estate, manufacturing, retail, tech information, media and financial services, he said. “For workers, this amounts to having to search more intensely for jobs,” he said, noting an increase over the past year in the number of applications per job applicant on LinkedIn^®. “People are having to put in more effort in order to get the same, or potentially a worse, result,” he said. “It’s really the interest-rate-sensitive sectors that have seen the large bulk of this slowdown,” he added. In contrast, lasting labor shortages have hit hard in certain sectors, especially healthcare, he pointed out.

Talk of a “Big Stay” may be overblown in many sectors. “The real Big Stay was after the Great Recession, when we saw the lowest quit rate recorded in the job openings and labor turnover survey,” Dr. Kantenga said. Current data shows most sectors are not experiencing a Big Stay at this time, he said. “Overall, we do see people moving quite a bit,” he said, adding that eight out of 15 sectors show quit rates near or above their quarter-century averages. However, more employees are staying in their jobs in interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as professional and business services and in information, which includes a lot of tech media and broadcast firms that have announced layoffs recently, he said. “But overall, we do see people moving quite a bit,” he said.

Demand for flexible work exceeds supply. Job seekers looking for remote and hybrid work face stiff competition when trying to land a job, Dr. Kantenga said. LinkedIn^® data shows that of all job applications submitted, about 60% are going to roles advertised as flexible, with the possibility of hybrid or remote work. However, those jobs make up only about 20% of the total number of positions advertised on the platform. “There is far more demand than supply,” he said. “So if you’re looking for remote work, you’re having to put in a lot more work in order to land that role.” Employers who want to attract and retain talent in the coming year may consider offering flexibility when it’s possible to do so, he stressed.

Population aging is a key factor for talent leaders to consider. “We don’t talk enough about population aging and what that means for talent and talent strategies,” Dr. Kantenga said, adding that some estimates show there will be eight workers retiring every minute in the coming year, with the share of people over 65 increasing steadily until 2050. “We’re looking at a wave of retirements, and that wave is going to crest at some point,” he said. “If you’re not thinking about that as a talent leader planning for the next 10 to 20 years, you’re missing out on a big aspect that’s going to shape the labor market.” Making work easier and more enjoyable will be key for keeping older workers, he said, adding that LinkedIn^® data shows a recent increase in “unretirements” for baby boomers. “It’s about offering flexibility not just in terms of where, but also when or how they work,” such as working on a project for three months and then taking a month off, he said. “Experimenting with different ways of working is what we’ll have to do to keep older people in the workforce.”

A strong talent strategy can help businesses face future challenges. Talent leaders are navigating technological change, population aging, flexible workplace arrangements and multigenerational workforces, Dr. Kantenga said. “There are a lot of challenges, and they’re all hitting at once,” he added. Talent leaders will need to figure out how to adapt, keep track of broader trends and use the data to advocate for the importance of a strong talent strategy in their companies, he said. “We were taught during the Great Reshuffle what happens when you do not have a very strong talent strategy,” he said. “And even when you do, sometimes you will still struggle to find talent. So I think those lessons have taught us that talent is one of the most important things to produce goods and services to make profits.”